Current implied probability
Yes 6%-1.0%
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$177.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
20.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 1, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Large trades
$1.2k94.0%
KALSHINo19h ago
KALSHINo19h agoVolume trend
$2.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
$185.7Yes: 13%KALSHI
KALSHIWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
$4.9Yes: 33%KALSHI
KALSHI
Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?
$1.3KAbove 125: 45%KALSHI
KALSHI
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$795.2Yes: 22%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$5502: 55%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
$9.90: 65%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Galaxy Digital opens $5M fund for Bitcoin quantum security researchCrypto News
Claude's Fable 5 just solved an 87-year-old math problem, and it matters for bitcoinCoindesk
Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs Unveil AI-Powered Bioresilience PlanBlockchain.News
NVIDIA's Ising Decoder Slashes Color Code Errors 300xBlockchain.News
NVIDIA BioNeMo Toolkit Accelerates AI-Driven Drug DiscoveryBlockchain.NewsNvidia NVSHMEM Boosts GROMACS GPU Scaling for Molecular DynamicsBlockchain.NewsRules
If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.