Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
3.0 pts (24h)WeatherOne-OffScience9y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 69%
Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$116.4
Liquidity
$14.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
36.0% / 43.0%
Spread
7.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jun 21, 25, 5:00 PM UTCDec 31, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:USGS
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035??
- Kalshi prices No at 69% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? resolve?
- Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.