KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 62%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$13.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
37.0% / 38.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
May 24, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
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PolymarketWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:USGS
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 22, 2026?
- Newark+59.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+95.0pt99%
- Philadelphia+11.0pt99%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $209K
- 24h Vol
- $202.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 22, 2026?
- 77° to 78°52.8%
- 79° to 80°23.1%
- 75° to 76°20.4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $60.8K
- 24h Vol
- $60.4K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Wellington on September 23?
- 10°C+27.5pt42.4%
- 11°C-22.0pt34.3%
- 9°C+14.5pt17.2%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 22, 2026?
- 65° to 66°49.5%
- 63° to 64°23.8%
- 67° to 68°20%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $41K
- 24h Vol
- $40.8K
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $39.9K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 23?
- 29°C+10.5pt49%
- 28°C-7.0pt41.4%
- 27°C-1.0pt5.8%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in London on September 23?
- What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 23?
- Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 23?
- Highest temperature in Atlanta on Sep 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 22, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030??
- Kalshi prices No at 62% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? resolve?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in Japan or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.