Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 27, 26, 7:52 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketRules
"The Big One"
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026? resolve?
- Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will there be a 6.7 or greater magnitude earthquake in San Francisco in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: "The Big One"