Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 3:33 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
14–16 · —
Loading selected book…
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Stored reference
14–16 45%Leader of 7 outcomes
14–16 45%Market quality
16 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$7.9K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$31.3K
Bid / Ask
— / —
14–16Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 31, 25, 5:12 PM UTCJan 8, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
5–7Lost
Before close: 0% ·
8–10Lost
Before close: 0% ·
<5Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · 14–16
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?
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KalshiLowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
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PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.