PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probability14–16 36%+0.5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$525.7
Liquidity
$12.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.3% / 1.0%
Spread
233.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.6%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Dec 31, 25, 5:14 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
14–1636%
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Rules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.