PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
June 30 · —
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Stored reference
June 30 49%
June 30 49%Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.1K
Liquidity
$14.5K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$5.3K
Bid / Ask
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June 30Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Oct 22, 26, 9:41 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · June 30
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Manifold MarketsRules
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://x.com/MarathonFusion/status/2113001073019662481)
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if high-rate alchemy is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- "High-rate alchemy" refers to the experimental production of stable gold-197 from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators) at an average rate of more than 800,000 gold-197 atoms per second.
- For reference, CERN's ALICE collaboration reported a maximum rate of approximately 89,000 gold nuclei per second in May 2025.
- The production rate will be calculated as the total number of gold-197 atoms produced by the irradiation, including gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation, divided by the total duration of the neutron irradiation.