Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.5%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 20, 26, 7:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketHow many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRules
Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial
- Two are solved already, so this market is really asking if 3 more will be solved before December 31
- Resolves YES if a solution was generated on December 31 but isn't announced until January, I may wait to resolve NO for a week or two in January for that reason.
- If the day the solution was generated isn't mentioned in an announcement I'll treat it as if it was generated the announcement day
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 91.5% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? resolve?
- At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial