KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2035 50.4%Leader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$635
Liquidity
$33.3K
High liquiditySpread
7.5 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 20, 25, 3:00 AMJan 2, 27, 3:00 AM
Trends
Rules
If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Clay Mathematics Institute
- The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem.
- The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples).
- Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify.
- If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award.
- The Poincaré Conjecture has already been solved by Grigori Perelman.
Open markets
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 314%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.4M
- 24h Vol
- $211.3K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-3.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027-0.3pt4%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $36.3M
- 24h Vol
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No92%
- Yes-1.8pt8%
- Total Vol
- $778.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.4K
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.3pt81%
- No19%
- Total Vol
- $316.5K
- 24h Vol
- $2.3K
POLYMARKETNatural Disaster in 2026?
- No+1.5pt80%
- Yes-1.5pt20%
- Total Vol
- $245.3K
- 24h Vol
- $2K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 203537.9%
- Before 203226.3%
- Before 203022.1%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104K
- 24h Vol
- $1.6K
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- Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded??
- Kalshi prices Before 2035 at 50% as of September 4, 2026.
- When does When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? resolve?
- When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is When will the next Millennium Prize be awarded? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.