KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before 2035 · —
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Stored price
Before 2035 83.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before 2035 83.2%Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$817.3
Open interest
$147.5K
High open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2035Spread
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Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Dec 20, 25, 3:00 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2035
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Nobel Prize be awarded for work on superconductors before 2034?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize awarded for Ozempic (or GLP-1 drugs) by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on Mars before a Nobel Prize is awarded for a discovery relating to dark matter?
Manifold MarketsWill a Nobel prize be awarded for the invention of AGI before 2050?
Manifold MarketsHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRules
If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the Clay Mathematics Institute
- The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples). Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify. If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award. The Poincaré Conjecture has already been solved by Grigori Perelman.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2035
- If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2029
- If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.