Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
WeatherOne-OffScience2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 28, 2026, 9:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored price
No 86.5%
No 86.5%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$9.8K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 21, 25, 5:00 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · No
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:USGS
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.