Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
WeatherOne-OffScience2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 82%
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19.8
Liquidity
$8.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
13.0% / 19.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Jun 21, 25, 5:00 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:USGS
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.9K
- 24h Vol
- $83.5K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston73%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- 91° to 92°57.8%
- 89° to 90°25.5%
- 93° to 94°8.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.9K
- 24h Vol
- $30.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
- 83° or below48.1%
- 84° to 85°43.3%
- 86° to 87°5.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9K
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 28°C-2.5pt44.3%
- 29°C+7.5pt26.4%
- 27°C-3.5pt20.8%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 10?
- 21°C+8.0pt48.1%
- 20°C+12.0pt34%
- 22°C-13.0pt10.4%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
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- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028??
- Kalshi prices No at 82% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028? resolve?
- Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If there is at least an earthquake of 8.0 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Dec 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.