KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before 2040 · —
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Stored price
Before 2040 42.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Before 2040 42.5%Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Open interest
$213.2
Low open interestBid / Ask
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Before 2040Spread
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Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 12, 26, 10:00 PM UTCJan 7, 28, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2040
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Rules
If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2040 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostThe EconomistSciencethe Clay Mathematics Institutethe New York TimesBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street Journalthe American Mathematical Societythe International Mathematical UnionThe Guardianthe Associated PressReutersScientific American
- For purposes of this Contract, Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP Problem, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem is considered resolved if at least one of the following occurs and has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time: A peer-reviewed article presenting a complete proof, a complete disproof, or a counterexample establishing the falsity of the conjecture, in the conjecture's original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been published in one or more Source Agency peer-reviewed journals. A recognized authoritative body for the academic field of the conjecture, including but not limited to Annals of Mathematics, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, a national academy of sciences, the Nobel Foundation, or an equivalent governing or recognition body for the relevant academic field, has officially recognized in a written communication that the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies have published reporting describing the conjecture, in its original form as specified by the Exchange at Issuance, as having been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work, and no Source Agency has, prior to the Expiration time, published reporting that such written work has been formally retracted by its author(s) or by any publishing journal, has been formally withdrawn or repudiated by its author(s), or contains an identified error that has not been publicly corrected or addressed by the author(s) in a subsequent publication or amendment.
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2040
- If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2040 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2035
- If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2035 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2030 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2029
- If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2029 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2028
- If all remaining Millennium Prize Problems are independently resolved before Jan 1, 2028 under the Payout Criterion and each resolution remains qualifying through expiration, then the market resolves to Yes.
