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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

0.3% (24h)ScienceYearly6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 5%
Market quality

80 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$3K

Liquidity

$32.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

4.7% / 5.0%

Spread

6.4%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-0.1%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 8, 25, 11:28 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes5%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
  • After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
  • If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
  • If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
  • After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.