Current implied probability
No 99%+0.0pt
Market quality
84 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$26.4K
Liquidity
$68.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 1.0%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-1.3 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 8, 25, 11:21 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes1%
Volume trend
$26.4kJul 226d of dataJul 29
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
- After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.