Current implied probability
No 99%-0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$32.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.3% / 1.4%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
28
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 8, 25, 11:21 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
PolymarketMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
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PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
- After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 17, 2026?
- Minneapolis+68.0pt99%
- Miami+22.0pt99%
- Houston+45.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $275.8K
- 24h Vol
- $261.2K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 17, 2026?
- 75° to 76°+24.0pt59.6%
- 77° to 78°-9.0pt29.4%
- 79° to 80°-2.0pt4.6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 17, 2026?
- 86° to 87°+28.0pt41.2%
- 84° to 85°+26.0pt29.9%
- 83° or below+17.0pt19.6%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 17, 2026?
- 82° to 83°+67.0pt93.3%
- 84° to 85°-7.0pt2.9%
- 80° to 81°-40.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Chicago on Sep 17, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+48.0pt55.8%
- 78° to 79°+18.0pt38.5%
- 82° or above+2.0pt2.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 17, 2026?
- 97° to 98°+25.0pt58.5%
- 95° to 96°+25.0pt29.3%
- 99° to 100°-38.0pt7.5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Highest temperature in Seattle on Sep 17, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 17, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
- Highest temperature in Busan on September 18?
- Highest temperature in London on September 18?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 17, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 18?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 18?
- Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 18?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 99% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? resolve?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.