Current implied probability
No 95%-0.3pt
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$18.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
4.8% / 5.9%
Spread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
6
7d Change
-1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Dec 8, 25, 11:21 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
PolymarketWill California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
PolymarketWhat will be the highest magnitude of an earthquake near the Phlegraean Fields in italy (Campi Flegrei) in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
- After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.9K
- 24h Vol
- $83.5K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston73%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- 91° to 92°57.8%
- 89° to 90°25.5%
- 93° to 94°8.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.9K
- 24h Vol
- $30.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
- 83° or below48.1%
- 84° to 85°43.3%
- 86° to 87°5.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9K
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 28°C-2.5pt44.3%
- 29°C+7.5pt26.4%
- 27°C-3.5pt20.8%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 10?
- 21°C+8.0pt48.1%
- 20°C+12.0pt34%
- 22°C-13.0pt10.4%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 95% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? resolve?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.