PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
8.0+ 34%Leader of 6 outcomes
8.0+ 34%Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$565.2
Liquidity
$4.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
24.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 2:01 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
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PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold Markets8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
KalshiRules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe.
- Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
- If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question.
- If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.