Where will a 6.0+ magnitude earthquake occur by end of September?
31.5 pts (24h)Latin AmericaOne-OffWeather25d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
United States 96%+31.5ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$10
Liquidity
$980.1
Low liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+55.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 31, 26, 11:04 PM UTCOct 4, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the the named outcome Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0+ attributed to the listed country, with an origin time between September 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, by October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.
- Otherwise, that market resolves "No".
- A qualifying earthquake must be counted for a country's market only if USGS attributes its location to that country in the event's location description, lists the earthquake with a preferred magnitude of 6.0 or higher, and lists it as occurring within the specified timeframe.
- Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
- Revisions to a reported earthquake's underlying data, such as preferred magnitude and country attribution, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after that earthquake's origin time (ET); revisions made after that time will not be considered.
- If a reported earthquake still qualifies at the end of its revision period, this market will resolve to "Yes" at that time, without remaining open until October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET.