PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 8:00 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
35%
SurpriseProbability Timeline
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%100%
Lula da Silva 10-15%2%
Lula da Silva <5%1%
Lula da Silva 5-10%13%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%0%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+0%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%Won
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+Lost
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%Lost
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lost
Lula da Silva 15%+Lost
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lost
Lula da Silva <5%Lost
OtherLost
Ratinho Júnior VictoryLost
Renan Santos VictoryLost
Tarcisio de Freitas VictoryLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
