Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
0.3 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America24d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Lula da Silva <5% 40%+1.0ptLeader of 11 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
82 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$307.5K
High liquiditySpread
0.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
16
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 10:48 PM UTCOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
KalshiRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for Lula da Silva <5% is 42%. The venues do not agree on which outcome is ahead.
CoinRithm reference Lula da Silva <5% 42% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
- Also available on Kalshi — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% 54%
- Also available on Limitless — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Lula da Silva <5% 39%