Current implied probability
Lula da Silva <5% 34%-2.5%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$293.2
Liquidity
$119.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
9.7% / 11.9%
Spread
22.7%
Wide spread7d Change
+5.0%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 10:51 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Lula da Silva <5%34%
Also available on Kalshi
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
6.0%1y
-6.0%15%
45%
0%
+8 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$8.7
24h Vol$0.1
KALSHIRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.