Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
1.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Lula da Silva 5-10% 35%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$185.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spread7d Change
-5.5%
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 10:48 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Lula da Silva 5-10%35%
Compare venues· Lula da Silva 5-10%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 35% | 0pt | $2.6K | $185.1K | 17 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi80% match · auto | Low | 34% | -1pt | $17 | $5K | 17 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
1y
34%
29%
19%
+8 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.2K
24h Vol$17
KALSHIRules
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
- For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.