Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
6.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityLula da Silva, 5-10% 15%-6.0%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.1
Liquidity
$7.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 22.0%
Spread
46.7%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 4:00 AMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
Selected outcome
Lula da Silva, 5-10%15%
Also available on Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
5.3%3mo
-2.5%34%
+3.5%32%
-2.0%11%
+8 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$238.9K
24h Vol$179.2
POLYMARKETRules
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lula da Silva minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Lula da Silva minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lula da Silva wins, or the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lula da Silva does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Lula da Silva minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Lula da Silva minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Lula da Silva wins, or the electoral votes received by Lula da Silva minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Lula da Silva does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.