Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
6.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityLula da Silva, 5-10% 33.3%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$105
Liquidity
$5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
20.0% / 28.0%
Spread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 4:00 AMOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Lula da Silva, 10-15%23%
Compare venues· Lula da Silva 5-10%
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall80% match · auto | Medium | 40% | 0pt | $1.3K | $145.1K | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiThis page | Low | 34% | -6pt | $105 | $5K | 14 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
14.2 pts2mo
+6.0pt41.7%
-14.2pt20.8%
+0.5pt14.6%
+8 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$297.5K
24h Vol$1.3K
POLYMARKETRules
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$105Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.