Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
3.0 pts (24h)One-OffPoliticsElectionLatin America1y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% 54%Leader of 11 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.3K
Liquidity
$13K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Apr 23, 26, 4:00 AM UTCOct 4, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Lula da Silva minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses.
- If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Lula da Silva runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Lula da Silva <5% 34%
- Also available on Limitless — Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory · Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 50%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory?
- Kalshi prices Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10% at 54% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory resolve?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory is scheduled to resolve on October 4, 2027.
- How is Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket, Limitless.