KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Canada / Canadian (98%)
Resolved: Sep 8, 2026, 3:45 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 1, 2026, 1:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
North Korea / North Korean2%
Hungary / Hungarian1%
Paraguay / Paraguayan1%
South Africa / South African1%
Saudi Arabia / Saudi Arabian99%
Iceland / Icelandic2%
France / French99%
United Kingdom / British99%
Japan / JapaneseLost
Saudi Arabia / Saudi ArabianLost
India / IndianLost
Mexico / MexicanLost
France / FrenchLost
Brazil / BrazilianLost
United Kingdom / BritishLost
Italy / ItalianLost
Germany / GermanLost
South Korea / South KoreanLost
Australia / AustralianLost
Spain / SpanishLost
Taiwan / TaiwaneseLost
Colombia / ColombianLost
Turkey / TurkishLost
Poland / PolishLost
Egypt / EgyptianLost
Panama / PanamanianLost
Denmark / DanishLost
Switzerland / SwissLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
🗺️Which countries will Trump visit in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
LimitlessWill Trump say he “forgives” the UK Labour Party, Keir Starmer or in any reference to them?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome, or a plural or possessive form of the named outcome, is stated by Donald Trump before Oct 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationPBSthe President of the United StatesCBSNBCBloombergAxiosCNNReutersThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPoliticoThe New York Times
- Payout criteria The word or phrase must be stated by President Donald Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts (Twitter/Truth Social).
- The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word, must be used.
- For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion.
- Doesn't count for payout Official acts like Executive Orders or bills signed do not count.
- Grammatical/tense inflections.