PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 6.5+
Resolved: Oct 4, 2026, 8:48 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
6.5+
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 4, 2026, 8:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
9.0+0%
7.5+0%
6.5+100%
7.0+0%
6.5+Won
7.0+Lost
7.5+Lost
8.0+Lost
8.5+Lost
9.0+Lost
Rules
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
- A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe.
- Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
- If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question.
- If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
