KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSettled by the venue, market by market
Resolved: Oct 27, 2026, 3:12 AM
This event has no single winner. The venue settled each market separately; each market shows its own result.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
7.7+15%
7.9+13%
8.0+9%
6.8+22%
7.0+60%
7.2+80%
7.2+Lost
7.5+Lost
7.7+Lost
7.9+Lost
7.8+Lost
7.6+Lost
8.0+Lost
7.1+Lost
7.3+Lost
7.0+Lost
6.8+Lost
6.9+Lost
7.4+Lost
Rules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 6.8 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:USGS
- If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 6.9 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.0 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.1 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.2 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an earthquake with a magnitude at least 7.3 on the Moment Magnitude Scale occurs with its epicenter in worldwide before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
