PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$413.2
Liquidity
$134.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 5.5%
Spread
10.0%
Wide spread7d Change
+1.3%
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Apr 27, 26, 9:25 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Tarcísio de Freitas94%
Compare venues· Tarcísio de Freitas
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 94% | 0pt | $413.2 | $134.7K | 22 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi80% match · auto | Medium | 92% | -2pt | $1 | $13K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
São Paulo Governor winner?
3.0%1y
-3.0%92%
8%
1%
+3 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$32.7K
24h Vol$1
KALSHIRules
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$4.8k92.0%POLYMARKETYes7897987987987924d ago
POLYMARKETYes7897987987987924d agoVolume trend
$413Jul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
$1.1KYes: 11%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Pará Governor Election Winner
$852.2Dr. Daniel Santos: 50%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
NM-01 House Election Winner
$714Democratic Party: 94%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Argentina presidential election winner?
$534.7Axel Kicillof: 40%KALSHI
KALSHI
Argentina Presidential Election Winner (Polymarket)
$239.5Javier Milei: 50%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will win Peru's 2026 presidential election?
$200Keiko Fujimori: 98.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket Account in Farage Backer's Name Took $9M in Crypto From Unknown Sources: FTDecrypt
Polymarket odds lift Lula to 60.5% in Brazil race as Russia sanctions vote nearsBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds jump: US-Iran invasion risk hits 30.5% after tariff newsBlockchain.NewsPolymarket 2028 odds: Vance leads at 19.85% as voter-roll claims circulateBlockchain.News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.NewsRules
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).