Current implied probability
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%-2.5%Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$130.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
11.5% / 14.0%
Spread
21.7%
Wide spread7d Change
+2.0%
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Apr 27, 26, 9:30 PMOct 4, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Selected outcome
Tarcísio de Freitas82%
Also available on Kalshi
São Paulo Governor winner?
87.0%1y
+87.0%91%
92%
8%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$304.2
24h Vol$5.7
KALSHIRules
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).