PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Tarcísio de Freitas 99%+0.1ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$69.3
Liquidity
$98.8K
High liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
13
7d Change
+1.1 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Apr 27, 26, 9:25 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
São Paulo Senate Election: 1st Place
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Manifold MarketsRules
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
- This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
- Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
- If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
- This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting.
- If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — São Paulo Governor winner? · Tarcísio de Freitas 98%
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for São Paulo Governor Election Winner?
- Polymarket prices Tarcísio de Freitas at 99% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does São Paulo Governor Election Winner resolve?
- São Paulo Governor Election Winner is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2027.
- How is São Paulo Governor Election Winner settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
- Where else is São Paulo Governor Election Winner listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.