Current implied probability
Mary Peltola 57.8%+6.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$988.8
Liquidity
$69.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
41.0% / 44.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 31, 26, 4:30 AMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Dan Sullivan44%
Compare venues· Mary Peltola
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall82% match · verified | High | 60% | 0pt | $1.7K | $99.3K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
 KalshiThis page | Medium | 63% | +3pt | $988.8 | $69.6K | 16 minutes ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Alaska Senate Election Winner
2.5 pts3mo
+2.5pt59.4%
-2.5pt40.6%
0%
+26 more outcomes
75 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$371.4K
24h Vol$1.7K
POLYMARKETRules
If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
- If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
- For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements.
- Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$989Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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If Dan Sullivan wins the 2026 Alaska Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
- If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
- If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No.
- For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements.
- Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified.