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  1. Prediction Markets
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  3. When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?

TechOne-OffScience6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before 2027
Before 2027 7%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

24 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$173.7

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

6.2% / 6.8%

Spread

9.7%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Aug 14, 25, 8:45 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before 20277%

Rules

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.