KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2040 64%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
50 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$51.7
Liquidity
$20.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.6 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Aug 14, 25, 8:45 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
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KalshiRules
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review AMIT Technology ReviewReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNature
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.3M
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+26.0pt60.4%
- 180-199-7.5pt32.7%
- 200-219-9.9pt4%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $371.9K
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.9%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.3%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $297.1K
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Total Vol
- $254K
- 24h Vol
- $250.1K
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Kalshi prices Before 2040 at 64% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? resolve?
- When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.