KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before 2040 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
Before 2040 59%Leader of 4 outcomes
Before 2040 59%Market quality
53 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Open interest
$24.6K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before 2040Spread
—
Market data
Updated 58 minutes ago
LaggingAug 14, 25, 8:45 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before 2040
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the first quantum computer virus be identified by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer show a clear advantage vs classical computers in solving a major cryptographic problem by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyNature PhysicsScience AdvancesProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review ANature Communicationsthe National Institute of Standards and Technology official publicationsIBM Research peer-reviewed publicationsGoogle Quantum AI peer-reviewed publicationsQuantinuum peer-reviewed publicationsIonQ peer-reviewed publicationsMIT Technology ReviewIEEE Transactions on Quantum EngineeringQuantum Computing ReportScience MagazineReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNatureSciencePhysical Review Letters
Rules for each outcome
- Before 2040
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2035
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2030
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before 2027
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
