KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2040 64%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$20.5K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.8 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 14, 25, 8:45 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will someone run DOOM on a quantum computer by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRules
If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Physical Review XQuantum Science and TechnologyProceedings of the National Academy of SciencesPhysical Review AMIT Technology ReviewReutersAssociated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe New York TimesNature
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2035, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2040, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,000 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $77,250 or above98%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.5pt39.2%
- 160-179+19.0pt38.2%
- 200-219-12.0pt11.8%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027-4.0pt67.6%
- Before March 2027+8.0pt23.4%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt5.4%
+2 more outcomes
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $238.4K
- 24h Vol
- $237.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+37.0pt99%
- Chicago+17.0pt99%
- Boston+34.0pt51%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $190.8K
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 9, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What will John Ternus say during his Apple Keynote?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the first useful quantum computer be developed??
- Kalshi prices Before 2040 at 64% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? resolve?
- When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will the first useful quantum computer be developed? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a quantum computer cracks 2048-bit RSA encryption using Shor's algorithm, or accurately simulates either the nitrogenase FeMo cofactor or cytochrome P450 enzyme before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.