Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.2%
Forecasters
46
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 25, 23, 8:23 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold Marketswill i get a quantum computer in my lifetime?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a quantum computer with 100,000 functioning qbits before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.
- Even in doing some cursory research for materials to post here in this question description, the headlines of articles written on this exact topic (2048 bit RSA) being broken by quantum computers seem to be all over the place, whether the piece was written almost a decade ago or just this year.
- So, the question is: WILL A QUANTUM COMPUTER BE ABLE TO PROVABLY BREAK 2048 BIT RSA ENCRYPTION BY 2030?
- In order to resolve, it must be proven possible to use quantum computing to successfully 'break' RSA 2048 bit...this could be done by taking a known existing 2048 bit public key that was already published and available, and using their algorithm to factorize the public key and determine the corresponding private key.
- This could be verified by utilizing the found private key to decrypt messages signed with the public key.
- "By 2030" means until December 31st, 2029 11:59:59 UTC
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? resolve?
- Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I was involved in a pretty interesting discussion about quantum computing and the risks posed to encryption algorithms recently and thought this might make for a fun market on here, since the opinions presented by the various parties in said discussion varied quite markedly.