Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 86.5% as of October 25, 2026.

When does Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030? resolve?

Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.

How is Will a fully error corrected quantum computer capable of running 100 million gates be created before 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This question resolves to yes on or before January 1st 2030 if a quantum computer equipped with the ability to perform quantum error correction and run 100 million gates is announced and nonzero 3rd party verification confirms it's existence.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

• December 31-1.2pt4%
• October 31+0.1pt1%

+5 more outcomes

Total Vol

$75.2M

24h Vol

$420.6K

KALSHI

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

• Before Jan 20, 202922.5%
• Before Jan 1, 202813.5%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+0.1pt4.5%

KALSHI

Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?

• No97.5%
• Yes-2.0pt2.5%

Total Vol

$525.5K

24h Vol

$10.4K

POLYMARKET

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

• 1+2.5pt88.9%
• 2-1.5pt11.1%
• 30%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 25, 2026?

• 6.1 or more+71.5pt91.5%
• 5.9 to 6.0-9.4pt2.8%
• 5.3 to 5.4-13.9pt1.9%

+3 more outcomes

KALSHI

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

• Yes+3.0pt81.4%
• No18.6%

Total Vol

$436.5K

24h Vol

$2.8K

• What will the biggest earthquake be on October 26, 2026?
• How many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?
• When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
• How many human H5N1 cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
• 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
• How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
• How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
• What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?