PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 52.5%
Market quality
31 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$10.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 95.0%
Spread
85.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
1
7d Change
-2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Apr 21, 26, 7:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), including the 2026 eruptions page (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2026).
- This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying eruption occurs, or once December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed and no qualifying eruption has occurred.
- If there is an ongoing Etna eruption at that time, this market may remain open for an additional 14 calendar days to verify the VEI rating of the ongoing eruption.
- If the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, or if an ongoing eruption has not been assigned a VEI rating within 14 calendar days of December 31, 2026, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 52% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? resolve?
- Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Etna eruption with VEI 2+ in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Etna volcano erupts with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 2 or greater between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.