KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
At least 2 94%+16.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
39 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$688.1
Liquidity
$4.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
12.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jun 2, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJun 29, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a volcano eruption with VEI >= 4 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
PolymarketVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
PolymarketWill any Manifold user be killed in a volcanic eruption before 2050?
Manifold MarketsMount Spurr significant eruption by date?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.9K
- 24h Vol
- $83.5K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston73%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- 91° to 92°57.8%
- 89° to 90°25.5%
- 93° to 94°8.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.9K
- 24h Vol
- $30.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
- 83° or below48.1%
- 84° to 85°43.3%
- 86° to 87°5.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9K
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 28°C-2.5pt44.3%
- 29°C+7.5pt26.4%
- 27°C-3.5pt20.8%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 10?
- 21°C+8.0pt48.1%
- 20°C+12.0pt34%
- 22°C-13.0pt10.4%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Major volcano eruption in 2026??
- Kalshi prices At least 2 at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Major volcano eruption in 2026? resolve?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on June 29, 2027.
- How is Major volcano eruption in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of VEI4 volcanic eruptions worldwide with a GVP-attributed start in 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.