Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 46 minutes ago
LaggingNov 11, 23, 9:54 PM UTCJan 2, 00, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve yes if a volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_explosivity_index) of 2 or greater is directly triggered by human activities by Jan. 1, 2100.
- Both accidental and purposeful activities that directly cause an eruption will count.
- Some examples of direct triggers could include drilling or a human-caused explosion.
- Indirect mechanisms, such as climate change increasing the chances of eruption (e.g., https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/geology/article/46/1/47/521232/Climatic-control-on-Icelandic-volcanic-activity), do not count.
- I will use a consensus of reputable sources (USGS, peer-reviewed journals) to determine the VEI of an eruption and whether it was directly caused by human activity.
