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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Science
  3. How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

0.1% (24h)One-OffScience9mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
0
0 70%+4.0%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$2.1

Liquidity

$13.3K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.5% / 1.6%

Spread

220.0%

Wide spread
7d Change

+0.2%

Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Jan 2, 26, 6:56 PMMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

070%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
  • Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

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Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
  • Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
  • If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
  • Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
  • Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.