Current implied probability
0 65%-4.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
33 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$6.2K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
58.0% / 72.0%
Spread
14.0 pt
Wide spread7d Change
-6.5 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jan 2, 26, 6:50 PMMar 31, 27, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
065%
Volume trend
$3Jul 226d of dataJul 28
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This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET.
- Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
- If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S.
- Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
- Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.