Current implied probability
≤6 27.9%+9.5ptLeader of 9 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
56 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$628.8
Liquidity
$20.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 4, 26, 6:45 PM UTCSep 14, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
- This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded.
- If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude.