KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$30.8K
Liquidity
$30.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.0% / 11.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 13, 26, 5:30 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year?
KalshiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExRules
If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:AccuWeatherNBCAssociated PressNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationThe Wall Street Journalthe National Hurricane CenterThe Washington PostNational Weather ServiceCNN WeatherThe New York TimesBloomberg NewsThe Weather ChannelReuters
- This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii.
- Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and the island of Hawai'i.
- It does not include the Midway Atoll, nor the Northwestern Islands, also known as the Leeward Hawaiian Islands.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-5.0pt61%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $108K
- 24h Vol
- $103.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above61.7%
- 88° to 89°18.7%
- 86° to 87°13.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $98K
- 24h Vol
- $97.7K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°57%
- 82° to 83°29%
- 79° or below9.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30K
- 24h Vol
- $29.9K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° to 91°55.6%
- 88° to 89°21.3%
- 92° to 93°14.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25K
- 24h Vol
- $24K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
- 98-99°F+29.5pt51%
- 100-101°F-11.5pt42.3%
- 102-103°F-9.5pt2.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Singapore on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 9?
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? resolve?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.