PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
No 94%
No 94%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$29
Liquidity
$7K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$2.4K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
0
7d Change
-2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 3:29 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year?
KalshiWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
- "Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).