Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.7%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 28, 26, 12:12 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.