PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 93%
No 93%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$825.9
Low liquidityOpen interest
$602.6
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-7.2 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:06 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season?
Manifold MarketsWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in a US state (Pacific)?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
- If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total.
