PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 98%-0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$30.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
0.5% / 3.0%
Spread
2.5 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-18.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:06 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 2 hurricane landfalls occur in the conterminous United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/) and post-storm Tropical Cyclone Reports (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A landfall counts toward this total only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- A storm must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify.
- If a single storm makes landfall more than once within this area during this period, each landfall identified as a distinct landfall by the NHC is counted separately toward the total.
