PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94.1%+4.0pt
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$985.8
Liquidity
$816.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
11
7d Change
-9.5 pts
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Dec 29, 25, 11:25 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiRules
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement.
- However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.