PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 95%
No 95%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$1.4K
Low liquidityOpen interest
$7.3K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
13
7d Change
-5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Dec 29, 25, 11:25 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiWill a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
KalshiWill a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before Dec 1, 2026?
KalshiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExWill a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiRules
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement.
- However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.