Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo US state landfall 56.5%Leader of 18 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+15.6 pts
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
May 18, 26, 8:38 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will 2 or more hurricanes make landfall in the US in 2026?
PolymarketOn the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold MarketsWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Only Atlantic/Gulf.
- Only storms with hurricane force winds at time of landfall according to NHC advisories.
- Only during official season (June 1 - November 30).
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season??
- Manifold Markets prices No US state landfall at 57% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season? resolve?
- In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is In which US states will hurricanes make landfall this Atlantic season? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Only Atlantic/Gulf.