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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Weather
  3. On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
Manifold Markets

On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?

WeatherYearly5mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Will Arthur reach Category 1 wind speeds? 54.4%
Leader of 45 outcomes
Forecasters

3

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 2 days ago

Stale
Sep 4, 25, 3:05 PMNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Will Arthur reach Category 1 wind speeds?54%

Rules

Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.

Manifold Markets
  • Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade.
  • Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.
  • MARKET CREATOR DOES NOT TRADE IN THIS MARKET

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Rules

Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.

Manifold Markets
  • Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade.
  • Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.
  • MARKET CREATOR DOES NOT TRADE IN THIS MARKET