Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030?
WeatherOne-Off4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 71.8%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 6, 24, 12:31 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Context: https://eos.org/articles/weve-already-seen-category-6-hurricanes-now-scientists-want-to-make-it-official
- That scale may not capture the risk posed by the most intense storms as the world warms, the authors wrote.
- They suggest a sixth category that encompasses storms with winds greater than 192 miles per hour (309 kilometers per hour).
- This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, a storm somewhere in the world has been designated Category 6 by the NHC.
- It resolves NO if no storm has been designated.
- This includes if the NHC has recognized the expansion of the scale, but no storm meets the criteria.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Context: https://eos.org/articles/weve-already-seen-category-6-hurricanes-now-scientists-want-to-make-it-official