Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.8%
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Updated 29 minutes ago
Feb 6, 24, 12:31 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
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Context: https://eos.org/articles/weve-already-seen-category-6-hurricanes-now-scientists-want-to-make-it-official
- That scale may not capture the risk posed by the most intense storms as the world warms, the authors wrote.
- They suggest a sixth category that encompasses storms with winds greater than 192 miles per hour (309 kilometers per hour).
- This market resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, a storm somewhere in the world has been designated Category 6 by the NHC.
- It resolves NO if no storm has been designated.
- This includes if the NHC has recognized the expansion of the scale, but no storm meets the criteria.
