What are the current odds for Will the Anthropocene be designated as a geological epoch by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of October 28, 2026.

Will the Anthropocene be designated as a geological epoch by 2030?

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No 90%

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Updated 34 minutes ago

Mar 9, 24, 4:56 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 6:59 AM UTC

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Resolves to YES if the International Commission on Stratigraphy designates the "Anthropocene" as a geologic epoch before Dec. 31, 2030.

According to wikipedia: "The Anthropocene is a proposed geological epoch dating from the commencement of significant human impact on Earth until now.
It affects Earth's geology, landscape, limnology, ecosystems and climate.[4][5] The effects of human activities on Earth can be seen for example in biodiversity loss and climate change.
Various start dates for the Anthropocene have been proposed, ranging from the beginning of the Neolithic Revolution (12,000–15,000 years ago), to as recently as the 1960s as a starting date."