KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 9, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
No 95%
No 95%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
—
Open interest unknownBid / Ask
2.0% / 8.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Oct 9, 26, 12:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a Category 3 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiWill a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?
KalshiWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- The specified coastal area for Tampa is the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida. The hurricane must be exactly Category 5 at landfall; a higher category does not satisfy this market. The center must cross this coastline from water to land. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules. The coverage period starts at listing and ends immediately before January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.