Category 4 or higher landfall
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 92%
No 92%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$140.4
Open interest
$139.4
Low open interestBid / Ask
8.0% / 9.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 3:15 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:58 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Northeast Cat 3+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Harris, Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Texas in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Florida in 2026?
ForecastExWill there be a major hurricane landfall within 50 miles of Mexico in 2026?
ForecastExWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.