What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?
16.0 pts (24h)One-OffWeather2mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Hanna 37.6%+16.0ptLeader of 21 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$13.4K
Liquidity
$335K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 10:00 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 25, 2026?
KalshiHurricane Fay category?
KalshiWhat will happen in the rest of September? (20 mana bonus in description)
Manifold MarketsRules
If a storm named Arthur is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves Yes for the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026.
- If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then all markets resolve to No. If a storm named Bertha is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a storm named Cristobal is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If a storm named Dolly is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 25, 2026?
- Seattle+3.0pt98%
- Providence+30.0pt95%
- Boston+2.0pt72%
+25 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $191.6K
- 24h Vol
- $181.3K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 25, 2026?
- 80° or below80.4%
- 81° to 82°11.2%
- 83° to 84°4.7%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $77.9K
- 24h Vol
- $75.4K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 25, 2026?
- 69° to 70°50%
- 71° to 72°30.4%
- 67° to 68°12.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $44.3K
- 24h Vol
- $43.9K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 25, 2026?
- 89° to 90°41.9%
- 87° to 88°34.3%
- 91° to 92°13.3%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $47.4K
- 24h Vol
- $42.2K
KALSHIHurricane Fay category?
- Category 1 or above-4.0pt10%
- Category 5 or above+7.0pt8%
- Category 2 or above-2.0pt5%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $52.3K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Madrid on September 26?
- 34°C-10.5pt45.9%
- 33°C+5.0pt36.7%
- 35°C-2.0pt11.2%
+8 more outcomes
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 25, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 26?
- Where will it rain on Sep 26, 2026?
- Where will it rain this weekend (Sep 26 - Sep 27)?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 25, 2026?
- Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 26?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 25, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 26?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 26?
- Precipitation in NYC in September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year??
- Kalshi prices Hanna at 37.6% as of September 25, 2026.
- When does What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? resolve?
- What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If a storm named Arthur is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.