What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
3.1 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Fay 31.6%Leader of 20 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$130.9
Liquidity
$9.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
8.6 pt
Wide spreadComments
1
7d Change
+3.1 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 4:56 PM UTCDec 2, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWhat month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsHow active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET.
- If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
- A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
- All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
- This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.