Current community forecast
October 91.7%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+36.4 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 19, 26, 11:51 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWhich names will be used for hurricanes in the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 110 or more retired Atlantic hurricane names by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Activity is measured in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE).
- If a storm is active across two distinct months, I’ll do my best to estimate the breakdown of ACE into the two months.
- I may ask Claude Opus 4.7 for assistance in resolving the question if needed.
- Source for resolution: https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
- In the unlikely case of a tie, I will use the number of storms in a month.
- In case of an even unlikelier subsequent tie, I will use the number of active days in a month.
