How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
0.1 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
1-3 · —
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Stored reference
1-3 98%Leader of 4 outcomes
1-3 98%Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$5.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$10.8K
Bid / Ask
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1-3Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-58.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 8:51 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
0Lost
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Market depth · 1-3
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will at least 5 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
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ForecastExWill at least 9 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
ForecastExWill at least 11 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
ForecastExWhat month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsHow active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
- If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
- This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
- The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
