How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
12.0 pts (24h)WeatherOne-Off3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
0 44%+12.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.4K
Liquidity
$6.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+35.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 28, 26, 8:51 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will at least 5 hurricanes form in the Atlantic Basin in 2026?
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ForecastExWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsHow active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
- If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
- A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
- This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
- The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
