Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) 97.5%-0.1ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 2, 26, 5:37 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWhich names will be used for hurricanes in the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill there be 110 or more retired Atlantic hurricane names by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.
- This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
- If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia.
- If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
- The last ten years had the following activity: Near normal: 2022 Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
- The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
