Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBelow normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) 82.2%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
35
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+4.6 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMay 2, 26, 5:37 AM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.2%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
Manifold MarketsHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
PolymarketWill the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season produce at least 3 hurricanes by October 15?
Manifold MarketsWhich storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
PolymarketWhen will the next Atlantic hurricane form?
KalshiRules
Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.
- This Wikipedia page has a list of previous Atlantic hurricane seasons by ACE.
- If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia.
- If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
- The last ten years had the following activity: Near normal: 2022 Above normal: 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2023, 2025 Hyperactive: 2017, 2020, 2024
- The least active season in recorded history was 1914, while the most active season was 1933.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- 93° or above87.6%
- 91° to 92°7.6%
- 89° to 90°1.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $83.9K
- 24h Vol
- $83.5K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Miami+44.0pt99%
- Chicago+13.0pt99%
- Houston73%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $85.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 9, 2026?
- 91° to 92°57.8%
- 89° to 90°25.5%
- 93° to 94°8.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $30.9K
- 24h Vol
- $30.8K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 9, 2026?
- 83° or below48.1%
- 84° to 85°43.3%
- 86° to 87°5.8%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9K
- 24h Vol
- $29.6K
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 10?
- 28°C-2.5pt44.3%
- 29°C+7.5pt26.4%
- 27°C-3.5pt20.8%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 10?
- 21°C+8.0pt48.1%
- 20°C+12.0pt34%
- 22°C-13.0pt10.4%
+8 more outcomes
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 10?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Chongqing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Beijing on September 10?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 9, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be??
- Manifold Markets prices Below normal (2.53 < ACE < 73) at 82% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? resolve?
- How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy.