KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Before Oct 15, 2026 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 3:23 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 2:55 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Before Oct 15, 202699%
Before Sep 1, 20264%
Before Nov 1, 202699%
Before Oct 15, 2026Won
Before Nov 1, 2026Lost
Before Nov 15, 2026Lost
Before Dec 1, 2026Lost
Before Sep 1, 2026Lost
Before Oct 1, 2026Lost
Before Aug 15, 2026Lost
Before Sep 15, 2026Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?
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PolymarketWhen will the next Category 5 hurricane form?
KalshiHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
KalshiRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If a hurricane (wind speeds of at least 74mph) forms in the Atlantic the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration