This market resolved: 1
Resolved: Sep 14, 2026, 10:46 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
1
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
87%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 14, 2026, 9:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
1100%
20%
30%
1Won
0Lost
2Lost
3Lost
4Lost
5Lost
more than 5Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between September 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and September 13, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
- If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
- If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, this market will resolve according to the data published at that time.
- This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded.
- If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude.