Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

CustomScience Geopolitics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 90.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Stale

Jan 9, 24, 10:59 AM UTCJan 10, 29, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Report a data issue with this market

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

CustomScience Geopolitics2y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 90.2%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 17 hours ago

Stale

Jan 9, 24, 10:59 AM UTCJan 10, 29, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?

Kalshi

In the next five years, will Nvidia's stock drop by 30% from its price at market close on 3/7/24?

Manifold Markets

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Manifold Markets

Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?

Manifold Markets

Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?

Polymarket

Major earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026?

Futuur

Rules

Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 90% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years? resolve?: Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years? is scheduled to resolve on January 10, 2029.

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?

Frequently asked questions

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