Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
CustomScienceGeopolitics2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 9, 2026, 2:25 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 90.2%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 47 days ago
StaleJan 9, 24, 10:59 AMJan 10, 29, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes90%
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