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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Science
  3. Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?

1.5% (24h)ScienceWeatherYearly3mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
<4m
<4m 51%+4.0%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$109.8

Liquidity

$9.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

24.4% / 30.0%

Spread

22.9%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.8%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Nov 20, 25, 11:56 PMOct 1, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

<4m51%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Polymarket
  • This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately.
  • Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
  • The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km).
  • Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
  • The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,655.03+2.33%EthereumETH$1,650.38+1.55%SolanaSOL$65.14+1.56%HyperliquidHYPE$54.86-0.88%XRPXRP$1.12+0.21%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.70%

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Rules

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Polymarket
  • This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately.
  • Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
  • The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km).
  • Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
  • The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools.