KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Below 4.6 million sq km 99%+11.0ptLeader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$142
Liquidity
$8.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jul 25, 26, 8:00 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
PolymarketWhich Arctic sea ice minimum thresholds will be crossed by October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsArctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2026?
FutuurAntarctic sea ice minimum to decrease in 2027?
FutuurWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Arctic be ice-free in summer by the year 2050?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.8 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The Underlying is the lowest individual daily Extent value reported in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index Version 4 Northern Hemisphere daily CSV for a date within between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026, measured in millions of square kilometers.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.6 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.5 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.4 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.3 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $274.9K
- 24h Vol
- $267.9K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+43.0pt89.3%
- 94° or above+2.0pt6.8%
- 90° to 91°-36.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt70.9%
- 82° to 83°-15.0pt22.3%
- 79° or below-4.0pt3.9%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes-7.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $77.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.2K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Minneapolis on Sep 8, 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Philadelphia on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026?
- Kalshi prices Below 4.6 million sq km at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 resolve?
- Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Lowest daily Arctic sea ice extent in summer 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the National Snow & Ice Data Center records a day between December 19, 2025 and October 01, 2026 where the extent of arctic sea ice is below 4.8 million square kilometers, then the market resolves to Yes.